Five Swing States each Shaved 3% off of Harris Voting Totals???
CBS Poll finds that 65% of all those polled thought that “voter fraud and irregularities” occurred in the 2024 Election
“Democracy does not die when you ask questions about election integrity, it dies when you stop asking questions.”
—
Yesterday in a new posting Stephan Spoonamore discussed a newly reported tip that appeared to be of genuine and valid interest in the search for answers to citizen concerns about the security and integrity of the 2024 National Elections—The 3% Shave;
So today after doing some further reading I decided to make use of my Chat GPT account for something other than image creation and applied a short series of questions related to the topic of the 3% Shave and the results were interesting.
During the first series of questions I learned that the concept is found in digital print being discussed in an article published December 14, 2022 titled: The True Swing from 2020 to 20221
The “Substitutional House Aggregated Vote Estimate” (SHAVE for short) is a modeling method which determines the generic popular vote by substituting vote totals in uncontested races with an estimate of the outcome of a generic matchup. These are then aggregated into state- or national-level figures.2
After finding that the concept appears to be a valid formulation I then launched into a second series of questions this time following back through some of the sources that the GPT had provided earlier which led me to a Reuters News report page with a concise graph of the Presidential Election Results in a map and three simple box graph forms,3 I then requested a simple but specific analysis:
Using the 3% shave formula analyze the election results as presented at the following webpage: https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ELECTION/RESULTS/zjpqnemxwvx/president/
The "3% shave" refers to a subtle yet significant shift in voter support, typically around 3%, from one party to another between election cycles. Analyzing the 2024 U.S. presidential election results using this concept reveals notable changes in voter behavior compared to previous elections.
In the 2024 election, Donald Trump secured 312 electoral votes, while Kamala Harris obtained 226.
This outcome indicates a shift in voter preferences compared to the 2020 election, where Joe Biden won with 306 electoral votes to Trump's 232.
The popular vote percentages also reflect this shift. In 2024, Trump received 49.9% of the popular vote, and Harris garnered 48.3%.
In contrast, the 2020 election saw Biden with 51.3% and Trump with 46.8%.
Calculating the change in popular vote percentages between the two elections:
Trump's increase: 49.9% (2024) - 46.8% (2020) = +3.1%
Democratic decrease: 48.3% (2024) - 51.3% (2020) = -3.0%
These figures indicate a swing of approximately 3% toward the Republican candidate between the 2020 and 2024 elections, exemplifying the "3% shave" phenomenon.
This shift underscores the dynamic nature of voter behavior and the impact of various factors influencing electoral outcomes over time. [Emphasis added, RJR; GPT provided 14 sources for this response]
So the naturally my next query was:
Breakdown and analyze each state's results to determine what states also reflect a 3% shave in voting patterns for the Presidential race.
Analyzing the 2024 U.S. presidential election results reveals that several states experienced a shift in voting patterns, commonly referred to as a "3% shave," where the margin between Democratic and Republican candidates changed by approximately 3% compared to the 2020 election.
Key States Reflecting a 3% Shift:
Wisconsin: In 2020, Joe Biden won Wisconsin by a margin of 0.6%. In 2024, Donald Trump secured the state with a margin of 2.4%, indicating a shift of approximately 3% toward the Republican candidate.
Pennsylvania: Biden carried Pennsylvania in 2020 by 1.2%. In 2024, Trump won the state by 1.8%, reflecting a shift of about 3% toward Republicans.
Michigan: The 2020 election saw Biden winning Michigan by 2.8%. In 2024, Trump won with a margin of 0.2%, marking a shift of approximately 3% toward the Republican side.
Arizona: Biden's 2020 victory in Arizona was by 0.3%. In 2024, Trump won by 2.7%, indicating a shift of about 3% toward Republicans.
Georgia: In 2020, Biden won Georgia by 0.2%. Trump's 2024 victory margin was 2.8%, showing a shift of approximately 3% toward the Republican candidate.
These shifts suggest a trend where states that were narrowly Democratic in 2020 moved toward the Republican candidate in 2024 by margins around 3%. This pattern highlights the dynamic nature of voter behavior and the impact of various factors influencing electoral outcomes over time.
Note: The specific percentage shifts are approximations based on available data and may vary slightly with official certified results.
With regards to the two swing states not shown in the response above further prompting revealed that both New Hampshire and Nevada each exceeded the 3% margin with 4.5% and 7.1% respectively reflecting a Republican shift in voting patterns.
As can be seen above of the seven swing states of which all seven have been called for Trump by News Outlets (once again, it needs to be remembered that news outlets are not official election information outlets and anything that they print is NOT a final result) and remarkably five of those seven display a 3% margin.
There are plenty of other individuals who are much better suited for explaining the statistical irregularities that are presented in these results; for me and many other interested persons this is just one more brick in the wall which is fast becoming clear is a wall made up of artificially created results.
Which all leads me to conclude with the following newly developed information.
Two days ago, November 24, Dean Obeidallah published an essay titled “Asking for a recount does not make you an election denier, it makes you a Democracy Defender!”4
It is well worth reading because what he has to say rings true—because it is the truth—as it is worth repeating again here—“Democracy does not die when you ask questions about election integrity, it dies when you stop asking questions.”
With regards to Dean’s essay one of the things that he briefly discusses are some polling results from a CBS poll5, wherein he focuses primarily on the findings that—
only 52% of Democrats believe the 2024 election was “full and fair.”6
While this figure caught my attention what really intrigued me was the CBS poll itself due to how recently it was conducted, November 19-22, 2024, and so I immediately examined it, especially in light of how the Main Stream Media outlets were using it to portray Trump in a favorable polling light with disingenuous reporting.7 Buried deep in the poll I found the following question and results:
Setting aside what from my perspective appears to be a poorly crafted question about a highly complex activity, I find it to be especially telling that 65% of all those polled thought that “voter fraud and irregularities” occurred in the 2024 Election. The further breakdowns of the question in view are also interesting, most notably the 77% of those aged 65+, the 72% of Conservatives, and the 72% of Independents who thought that “voter fraud and irregularities” occurred in the 2024 Election stand out as supermajorities. It seems to me that younger Democratic voters are not the only ones with concerns about the integrity of the 2024 elections.
Well that is all for tonight.
Keep asking questions and expressing your concerns, because that is how we will save our Republic.
Thank you for reading.
Robert J. Rei, November 26, 2024
Suggested related reading:
The True Swing from 2020 to 2022, Leon Sit, December 14, 2022, Split-Ticket.org, https://split-ticket.org/2022/12/14/the-true-swing-from-2020-to-2022
Ibidem
US presidential election results, November 26, 2024 (Updated), Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ELECTION/RESULTS/zjpqnemxwvx/president/
cbsnews_20241124_SUN,CBS News Poll—November 19-22, 2024 Adults in the US, Uploaded by Caroline Linton, SCRIBD, https://www.scribd.com/document/796265728/cbsnews-20241124-SUN
Ibidem at #4
See for example the webpage which Dean’s essay links to for the CBS poll: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-trump-transition-cabinet-picks-2024-11-24/
Nice article. Talk soon?
‘A few’ is a challenging poll question. In an election in any country it would be a confident statement that no where was there some funny business. The question is was it extensive, organised and heading towards altering the outcome. to the outside world the US election process looks quite fraught, with the major difference from elsewhere being the involvement of politically aligned people in running elections compared with nations where electoral officials are not aligned or thought to be (while each is expected to vote and have a personal view).
The issue with the 2024 election that I have read a little about but refuse to dive into conspiracy leaning rabbit holes is the apparently high proportion of voters who voted for President only. they did not vote for House, Senate (where relevant) and other state ballots. And it is said that these weight to Trump. The suggestion is that these votes were added to the tally. As above - this appears to be a statistical argument tied to a lack of evidence for an actual manipulation.